Subject: CIA report "Mapping the Global Future" Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 10:16:21 -0600 Message-ID: <B14120EE5C432443B21102F7925DAD02014202D5@COKE.uwec.edu> From: "Grossman, Zoltan C." <GROSSMZC@uwec.edu>
PDF of CIA report "Mapping the Global Future" available at
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html
US Intelligence Report Sees Sharp Rise in Asian Influence
By Gary Thomas
Washington Voice of America
14-January-2005
A new forecast compiled by U.S. intelligence experts foresees China and
India spearheading an expansion of Asian political and economic
influence throughout the world. It also sees many Arab countries at a
crossroads as globalization spreads.
The report, labeled "Mapping the Global Future," lays out a world 15
years from now in which the United States remains the dominant power,
but faces increased competition from growing economic power in Asia and
challenges from political Islam.
The long-range forecast was issued by the National Intelligence Council,
or N.I.C., a kind of research organization for the head of the Central
Intelligence Agency. The Council regularly compiles reports reflecting
the collective views of U.S. intelligence agencies. Officials say the
views of more than one thousand political, economic, and social experts
around the world were solicited for the new report.
In an interview, N.I.C. chief Robert Hutchings told VOA the United
States world role will not be eroded. But, he says, China and India will
become increasingly important players on the world stage. "I wouldn't
put it in terms of the erosion of America's role, because we will still
be the dominant power. It's really maybe a relative decline," he said.
"But what we are really identifying is the likely, the almost certain
rise of Asia, led by China and India, but including other countries as
well, as a major factor in world affairs, a major new factor in world
affairs."
The report says China and India will expand their economic clout and
likens their heightened status to the ascension of a united Germany as a
power in the 1800s and the later rise of U.S. global power.
Looking to global threats, the report says Iraq could well replace
Afghanistan as a training ground for terrorists. Mr. Hutchings says it
is by no means certain that terrorism will remain as great a threat 15
years from now. But, he adds, Islam will remain a political as well as
religious force in the world. "We simply don't know if global terrorism
will be as great a threat in the year 2020 as it is now. It will
certainly be a factor in world affairs," he said. "One of the broad
trends we do identify, though, is political Islam, and probably radical
Islam, as a force that has staying power."
Mr. Hutchings says Arab societies are at a fork in the road. Some may
take the democratic path, he says, but others that feel left out by the
benefits of globalization may feel resentful.
"On the one hand, the opportunities to join a productive global order
are greater and more vivid for Arab states who are able to adapt to it,"
he said. "On the other hand, those that are not may feel a sense of
exclusion and marginalization and humiliation even more acutely as
globalization -- and we're not talking about America here, just the
forces of globalization broadly -- push up more and more against
traditional societies. That's why so much is at stake in Iraq and the
broader Middle East."
There is also a danger, the report notes, that relatively new
democracies may backslide toward authoritarianism. "There is reason for
concern in parts of the former Soviet Union, where democracy has yet to
put down solid roots. There are worrying signs in parts of Southeast
Asia. So I think one has to assume that at least some of those countries
that joined the third wave of democratization may fall off and backslide
into authoritarian rule," he said.
The good news, Mr. Hutchings says, is that the report says while the
threat of war remains, the likelihood of world conflict has receded to
its lowest level in one hundred years.